IEEE Reliability Society Newsletter Vol. 57, No. 1. February 2011

Table of Content

Front page:
President's Message

From the Editor

Messages from VPs:

VP Publications Report from Dr. Robert Loomis

Society News:

2011 EXCOM and ADCOM Members

Prestigious Engineer of the Year Award

Best Chapter Awards

AdCom Meeting

Nominations for IEEE Medals and Recognitions

RS seeks Administrative Committee Candidates for 2012/2013/2014 Term

Reliability Society Past AdCom Members Obituaries:
Former RS President Monshaw Dies At 84

Obituary for Ann Miller


Feature Articles:
Reliability through the Ages

Reliability Overview of Air Traffic Reliability in the National Air Space

 

 

Regular Articles:

Field Based Reliability Calculations (MTBF) – Surmounting Practical Challenges. An outside the box approach.

Applying basic and familiar reliability theory to estimating and improving the avialablity of software-intensive systems

Fault Tolerance in Web Services


PHM Articles:

Detection of Multiple Failure-Modes in Electronics using Self-Organized Mapping

 


Book Review :

Reliability Engineering Book Review


Chapter Activities:
Cleveland Chapter

Taipei/Tainan Chapter

The Denver Chapter awarded a certificate to Hobbs Engineering

Announcements:
Solicitation for Society Technical Committees

UK&RI Workshop on Reliability and Safety

WCEAM-IMS 2001



Links:
Reliability Society Home


RS Newsletter Homepage

Reliability Society Newsletter - February 2011 Feature Article:

Reliability Overview of Air Traffic Reliability in the National Air Space

Dr Samuel Keene, FIEEE

This survey report is meant to look at the reliability and fatality rate of air traffic in the National US airspace (NAS). The author has queried reliability society leaders, air craft pilots, and made good use of the information compiled and available on the web. The main concern is to look ahead at the challenges facing air traffic reliability as the number of planes expands with increasing air traffic. What will be the impact on reliability and safety? What hazard mitigations do we have?

One significant improvement to aircraft control comes from The Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). " This is an air navigation aid developed by the Federal Aviation Administration to augment the Global Positioning System (GPS), with the goal of improving its accuracy, integrity, and availability. Essentially, WAAS is intended to enable aircraft to rely on GPS for all phases of flight, including precision approaches to any airport within its coverage area". (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wide_Area_Augmentation_System)." WAAS provides plane to have autonomous control to make Category 1 landings at airports. This alleviates the need for ground landing assets for such landings, providing more landing options for pilots and reducing the cost and maintenance needed for ground control assets at smaller airports. More landing options promote higher NAS reliability.

Aviation accidents are extremely rare, with the probability of a passenger being killed on a single flight at approximately one in eight million flights. If a passenger boarded a flight at random, once a day, everyday, it would statistically be over 21,000 years before he or she would be killed. http://www.planecrashinfo.com/rates.htm. Breakdown of cause of accidents is shown below, being reproduced from. http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm



The table above is compiled from the PlaneCrashInfo.com accident database and represents 1,300 fatal accidents involving commercial aircraft, world-wide, from 1950 thru 2009 for which a specific cause is known. Aircraft with 10 or less people aboard, military aircraft , private aircraft and helicopters are not included.

"Pilot error (weather related)" represents accidents in which pilot error was the cause but brought about by weather related phenomena. "Pilot error (mechanical related)" represents accidents in which pilot error was the cause but brought about by some type of mechanical failure. "Other human error" includes air traffic controller errors, improper loading of aircraft, fuel contamination and improper maintenance procedures. Sabotage includes explosive devices, shoot downs and hijackings. "Total pilot error" is the total of all three types of pilot error (in yellow). Where there were multiple causes, the most prominent cause was used.
Source: PlaneCrashInfo.com database









Notable Accident Causes by Category
Bird Strikes
10/04/1960 Boston, Massachusetts Eastern AL During takeoff the aircraft struck a flock of starlings lost three engines and crashed.
11/23/1962 Ellicott, Maryland United AL The aircraft struck a Whistling Swan tearing off the left horizontal stabilizer.
09/15/1988 Bahar Dar, Ethiopia Ethiopian AL Engine failure due to ingestion of 10-16 Columbia Guinea birds causing a crash.
04/18/1990 Off Panama Aero Perlas Crashed on takeoff due to engine failure caused by bird ingestion.
09/22/1995 Anchorage, Alaska U.S. Air Force Flew into a flock of 100 or more Canada Geese, lost two engines, and crashed.
04/19/2000 Pepo, Congo Centrafricain Airlines Crashed after losing its engines after striking birds.
01/15/2009 New York, New York US Airways Ditched in Hudson River after losing both engines after collision with Canadian Geese.
Air Traffic Control Error
04/14/1958 Castel de Fels, Spain Aviaco Another aircraft was permitted to takeoff without knowing the exact position of the plane.
07/21/1961 Shemya, Alaska Alaska AL Lack of guidance from air traffic controller during last stages of flight.
02/08/1965 New York, New York Eastern AL Placement of the two aircraft on a near head on course causing one to crash.
03/05/1969 San Juan, Puerto Rico Prinair A trained vectored the aircraft into mountainous terrain under IFR conditions.
02/06/1970 Samarkand, USSR Aeroflot Misidentification of aircraft by the ATC causing the plane to impact a mountain.
12/20/1972 Chicago, Illinois Delta/North Central The ATC gave ambiguous instructions to the crew.
09/09/1976 Adler, Russia Aeroflot / Aeroflot Violation of separation rules.
08/11/1979 Dneprodzerzhinsk, USSR Aeroflot Separation error by the ATC causing a midair collision.
04/19/1983 Keninakan, Russia Aeroflot ATC procedural error in not identifying the planes position.
02/01/1991 Los Angeles, California  USAir/Skywest ATC cleared a plane to land while the runway was occupied by another aircraft.
11/07/1996 Lagos, Nigeria Aviation Dev. Corp. The controller thought he had cleared to aircraft to the correct altitude but didn't.
09/26/1997 Buah Nabar, Indonesia Garuda Indonesian AL ATC error in directing the plane in the wrong direction into mountainous terrain.
07/01/2002 Uberlinger, Germany Bashkirian AL / DHL Conflicting information give to pilot by ATC and what he was receiving on his TCAS.
Cargo Hold / Cabin Fire
09/07/1945 Florence, South Carolina Eastern AL A fire of undetermined origin in the rear cargo compartment or lavatory.
08/02/1949 Jaquirana, Brazil Varig A fire broke out in cargo hold G.
01/09/1964 Zarate, Argentina Aero Litoral Argentina The crew was possibly overcome by fumes from a fire.
07/09/1964 Parrottsville, Tennesee United AL An uncontrollable fire of unknown origin which started below the passenger floor and eventually involved the passenger cabin.
07/26/1969 Biskra, Algeria Air Algerie A fire in an electrical panel led to a cabin fire.
08/14/1972 Konigs, East Germany Interflug Melting insulation ignited flammable fluid which led to an uncontrollable fire that eventually weakened the structure until the tail fell off.
08/31/1972 Magnitogorsk, Russia Aeroflot Fire caused by spontaneous ignition of passenger baggage.
07/11/1973 Paris, Orly, France Varig A fire started in the aft right toilet either from an electrical short or discarded cigarette.
11/03/1973 Boston, Massachusetts Pan American Smoke in the cockpit and uncontrollable fire caused by spillage of nitric acid on sawdust packing in the cargo hold.
11/26/1979 Ta'if, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia Pakistan Inter. AL A fire may have been started by a passenger possibly from a leaking kerosene stove.
08/19/1980 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabian AL A fire broke out in the aft cargo compartment.
12/24/1982 Guangzhou, China CAAC A passenger's cigarette caused a fire in the cabin which led to an oxygen tank exploding.
06/02/1983 Covington, Kentucky Air Canada An in-flight fire in the rear lavatory, of unknown origin.
07/02/1986 Syktyvar, Russia Aeroflot An in-flight fire was caused by baggage that ignited in the rear cargo hold.
05/09/1987 Warsaw, Poland LOT A fire in the cargo hold was not detected because of damage to the fire warning system.
11/28/1987 Mauritius, Indian Ocean South African Airways A fire originated in a front pallet on the right side in the upper deck cargo hold.
01/13/1990 Pervouralsk, Russia Aeroflot A fire broke out in the rear cargo hold.
05/11/1996 Everglades, Florida ValuJjet An in-flight fire caused by activation of oxygen generators in the forward cargo hold.
09/02/1998 Peggy's Cove, Nova Scotia Swissair A fire in the entertainment system wiring started in a hidden area above the cockpit ceiling when arcing ignited the cover material made of thermal insulation blankets.
Design Flaw
03/31/1931 Bazaar, Kansas Trans Cont. & West AW Aileron flutter, brought about by moisture leaking into the wing's interior, weakening the glue that bonded the wooden spars.
10/24/1947 Bryce Canyon, Utah United AL Allowed vented fuel to be carried back into the cabin heater air intake causing a fire.
11/11/1947 Gallup, New Mexico American AL Allowed vented fuel to be carried back into the cabin heater air intake causing a fire.
06/17/1948 Mt. Carmel, Pennsylvania United AL Design flaw allowed carbon dioxide used to suppress a fire to leak into the cockpit and asphyxiate the crew.
08/29/1948 Winona, Minnesota Northwest Orient AL Loss of the outer panel of the left wing which separated as a result of a fatigue crack which was induced by a faulty design of a wing flange.
01/10/1954 Elba, Italy British Overseas AW Metal fatigue due to a design flaw.
04/08/1954 Off Stromboli, Italy Trans Canada AL Metal fatigue due to a design flaw.
02/05/1955 Calabar, Nigeria West African AW A design flaw in the wing led to fatigue cracks and wing failure.
09/29/1959 Buffalo, Texas Braniff AL A design flaw caused an oscillation known as mode to transfer propeller wobble to the outboard nacelles and induce flutter in the wing which led to the separation of the wing.
03/17/1960 Tell City, Indiana Northwest Orient AL A design flaw caused an oscillation known as mode to transfer propeller wobble to the outboard nacelles and induce flutter in the wing which led to the separation of the wing.
07/05/1970 Toronto, Canada Air Canada Faulty design by allowing the spoiler handle to perform two different unrelated tasks.
03/03/1974 Ermenonville, France Turkish AL A defect in the latching mechanism on the cargo door.
07/06/1982 Moscow, Russia Aeroflot Failure of the aircraft's power plant fire warning system due to design deficiencies which resulted in false fire indications in both engines.
04/06/1993 Over the Pacific Ocean China Eastern AL Inadequate design of flap/slat actuation handle that allowed it to be inadvertently dislodged from the UP/RET position causing extension of the leading edge slats.
03/03/1991 Colorado Springs, Colorado United AL Uncommanded deflection of the rudder caused by the jamming of the main rudder PUC servo valve. Design flaw.
09/08/1994 Aliquippa, Pennsylvania USair Uncommanded deflection of the rudder caused by the jamming of the main rudder PUC servo valve. Design flaw.
12/05/1997 Irkutsk, Russia Russian Air Force Design flaw which led to uncoordinated operation of the high-pressure compressors.
Sabotage / Explosive Device
03/28/1933 Dixmude, Belgium Imperial AW Fire started by a passenger in an attempt to commit suicide.
10/10/1933 Chesterton, Indiana United AL Explosive device placed in the cargo hold, nitro-glycerin with timing device.
05/07/1949 Sibuyan Sea, Philippines Phillipine AL Bomb placed aboard to kill the husband of a woman involved with another man.
09/09/1949 Sault-aux-Cochons, Canada Canadian Pacific AL Bomb placed aboard by husband to collect insurance on wife.
08/12/1952 Palmeria de Goias, Brazil Trans Aero Nac. A bomb exploded aboard killing everyone aboard.
04/11/1955 Great Natuna Island, Sarawak Air India An aircraft worker placed an incendiary device in the starboard wheel well.
11/01/1955 Longmont, Colorado United AL Jack Graham placed a bomb aboard to collect insurance on the death of his mother.
07/25/1957 Daggett, California Western AL Jeweler Saul Binstock detonated a bomb in lavatory in suicide for insurance plot.
04/17/1959 Puerto Kino,Mexico Tigres Voladores A bomb is believed to have exploded onboard.
09/08/1959 Poza Rica, Mexico Mexicana A passenger, who was believed to have been carrying a bomb, fell from the airplane.
11/16/1959 Gulf of Mexico National AL Explosion of a bomb aboard was strongly suspected.
01/06/1960 Bolivia, North Carolina National AL A passenger detonated a bomb under his seat in suicide for insurance plot.
05/10/1961 In Amenas, Libya Air France Detonation of a nitrocellulose bomb.
05/22/1962 Unionville, Missouri Continental AL Detonation of a dynamite bomb in the right rear lavatory in a towel bin.
12/08/1964 Tripuani, Bolivia Aerolineas Abaroa Detonation of a bomb in the tail section. A suicide for insurance plot was suspected.
07/08/1965 Dog Creek, British Columbia Canadian Pacific AL A bomb exploded in the cabin. Acid and gunpowder may have been poured in toilet.
11/22/1966 Aden, Yemen Aden AW Detonation of an explosive device placed in hand luggage in the cabin.
02/09/1967 Mexico City, Mexico Cubana Crashed due to bomb explosion.
10/12/1967 Rhodes, Greece British European AW Destroyed by a detonation of a bomb within the cabin.
12/22/1969 Nha Trang, Vietnam Air Vietnam An explosive device was detonated in the cabin just as the aircraft was about to land.
02/21/1970 Zurich, Switzerland Swissair A bomb with an altimeter trigger was believed to have been placed in a mail package.
04/21/1970 Manila, Philippines Philippine AL Crashed into mountainous terrain after an explosion in the rear lavatory.
11/21/1971 Penhu Island, Taiwan China AL Detonation of an explosive device.
01/26/1972 Hermsdorf, Czechoslovakia JAT Detonation of a bomb in the forward cargo hold.
06/15/1972 Pleiku, Vietnam Cathay Pacific AW Detonation of an explosive device in the passenger cabin in a suitcase under a seat.
03/19/1973 Ben Me Thout, South Vietnam Air Vietnam Crashed after an explosion in the cargo hold.
12/17/1973 Rome, Italy Pan American AW Two phosphorus bombs were thrown into the aircraft prior to its departure.
09/08/1974 Ionian Sea, Greece Trans World AL Detonation of an explosive device in the aft cargo hold.
01/01/1976 Al Qaysumah, Saudi Arabia Middle East AL Detonation of an explosive device in the forward cargo compartment.
10/06/1976 Bridgetown, Barbados Cubana Detonation of an explosive device in the aft of the cabin.
02/19/1979 Barentu, Ethiopia Ethiopian Airlines Crashed after a bomb exploded aboard.
06/27/1980 Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy Itavia An explosive device aboard the aircraft causing the plane crash.
12/21/1980 Rio Hacha, Colombia Trans. Aereos del Caribe Explosion possibly caused by a bomb placed in the rear section of the aircraft.
09/23/1983 Mina Jebel Ali, UAE Gulf Air Detonation of an explosive device in the baggage compartment.
06/23/1985 Atlantic Ocean, Ireland Air India Detonation of an explosive device in the forward cargo hold.
04/02/1986 Athens, Greece Trans World AL Detonation of a explosive device in the cabin causing 4 passengers to be sucked out.
05/03/1986 Colombo, Sri Lanka Air Lanka Detonation of an explosive device in the rear section of the cabin while on the ground.
11/29/1987 Andaman Sea Korean AL Detonation of an explosive device in the passenger cabin.
03/01/1988 Johannesberg, South Africa Comair Detonation of a nitro-glycerine bomb in the cabin. Suicide for insurance.
08/17/1988 Bahawalpur, Pakistan Pakistan Air Force Detonation of a low level explosive device or incapacitating gas.
12/21/1988 Lockerbie, Scotland Pan American AW Detonation of an explosive device in the forward cargo area planted by terrorists.
09/19/1989 Bilma, Niger Union des Trans. Aer. Detonation of a bomb in a container location 13-R in the forward cargo hold.
11/27/1989 Bogota, Colombia Avianca Detonation of a bomb at seat 15F causing ignition of fuel vapors in an empty fuel tank.
07/19/1994 Colon, Panama Alas Chiricanas Crashed after a bomb exploded aboard.
07/09/1997 Suzano, Brazil TAM A small bomb containing only 7 oz. of explosives was placed under a passenger seat.
05/07/2002 Off Dalian, China China Northern Airlines Out of control fire after a passenger deliberately started a fire.
08/24/2004 Toula, Russia Volga-Avia Express Detonation of an explosive device aboard.
08/24/2004 Rostov-on-Don, Russia Sibir Airlines Detonation of an explosive device aboard.
Fuel Starvation
05/18/1935 Knowles Flying Service Flint, Michigan Negligence on the pilot for not replenishing his fuel supply before it got dangerously low.
12/31/1935 Imperial Airways Alexandria, Egypt Ran out of fuel.
07/02/1937 Lae, New Guinea Purdue Res. Found. The aircraft had to be flown higher than expected due to storms which used extra fuel.
11/29/1938 Off Point Reyes, Calif. United Air Lines Ran out of fuel forcing a ditching at sea.
02/09/1943 Gander, Newfoundland British Overseas AW Ran out of fuel.
12/28/1946 Michigan City, Michigan American AL Ran out of fuel for unknown reasons.
01/05/1947 Carmel, New Jersey Nationwide Air Trans. Near fuel exhaustion forced the crew to carry out an emergency landing.
01/11/1947 Lympne, England BOAC Ran out of fuel because of poor weather conditions encountered throughout the flight.
01/07/1948 Savannah, Georgia Coastal Air Lines The fuel valves were positioned so that both engines were supplied from only one tank.
01/30/1948 Near Bermuda British So. Am. AW Ran into strong head winds in the Atlantic and ran out of fuel.
08/15/1949 Lurga Point, Ireland Transocean Air Lines Ran out of fuel and ditched in the Atlantic.
07/28/1950 Porte Alegre, Brazil Penair do Brasil Ran out of fuel while in a holding pattern.
04/30/1952 Delhi, India Deccan, AW Fuel starvation after the plane banked to make a turn and the tank was almost empty.
05/26/1952 Atar, Mauritania British Overseas AW Became lost in the desert and ran out of fuel.
06/19/1954 Folkestone, England  Swissair Ditched into the Atlantic Ocean after running out of fuel.
12/22/1954 Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Johnson Flying Service Ditched into the Monongahela River after running out of fuel.
05/02/1970 St. Croix, Virgin Islands Antillian AL Ran out of fuel and ditched into the Mediterranean Sea.
12/05/1970 Delhi, India Jamair The No. 2 engine failed on takeoff due to fuel starvation.
02/01/1972 Tegal, Indonesia Penas Due to a compass error the aircraft became lost and crashed due to fuel starvation.
07/24/1973 Honolulu, HI Air Hawaii Fuel starvation. Rear auxiliary tanks not serviced.
08/11/1974 Ouagadougou, Upper Volta Air Mali After being diverted and a navigation error the crew circled the wrong city.
10/20/1977 Gillsburg, Mississippi L & J Company A malfunction in the No.2 engine caused a higher than normal fuel consumption.
12/02/1977 Al Bayda, Lebanon Balkan Bulgarian AL Because of fog, the crew could not find the alternate airport and ran out of fuel.
12/28/1978 Portland, Oregon United AL Ran out of fuel while the crew was distracted with a landing gear problem.
09/04/1982 Rio Branco, Brazil Cia Bras. de Tratores Ran out of fuel on the third approach in poor weather.
07/23/1983 Gimli, Manitoba, Canada Air Canada Accidentally used pounds/liter for the specific gravity factor instead of kilograms/liter.
09/03/1989 Sao Jose do Xingu, Brazil Varig The crew flew in the wrong direction for two hours then ran out of fuel.
01/25/1990 Cove Neck, New York Avianca Put in series of holding patterns because of heavy traffic and ran out of fuel.
09/11/1990 Off Newfoundland, Canada Faucett Ran out of fuel and crashed into the Atlantic Ocean.
06/26/1991 Sokotu, Nigeria Okada Air After circling for an hour, unable to locate the air field, the plane ran out of fuel.
11/15/1993 Kerman, Iran Magistralnye Avialinii Ran out of fuel while in a holding pattern.
09/18/1994 Tamanrasset, Algeria Oriental AL After circling for1 1/2 hours and aborting four landing attempts the plane ran out of fuel.
09/26/1994 Vanavera, Russia Cheremshanka AL After three landing attempts, the crew diverted to their alternate but ran out of fuel.
09/11/1995 Jalalabad, Afghanistan  Ariana Afghan AL Ran out of fuel.
10/31/1995 Piedras Negras, Mexico TACSA Ran out of fuel trying to land in fog.
04/05/1996 Petropavlovsk, Russia Krasnoyarskie AV Crashed into a mountain after running out of fuel.
01/13/1998 Tor Kach, Pakistan Ariana Afghan AL Crashed into a mountain after being diverted to their alternate due to bad weather.
03/24/2000 Kadirana, Sri Lanka OMSK After 2 messages they were low on fuel, the plane crashed while attempting to land.
08/12/2001 Lajes, Terceira, Azores Air Transat Improperly installed part caused a fuel leak and the plane to run out of fuel.
06/11/2002 Winnipeg, Manitoba Keystone Air Services Ran out of fuel.
11/11/2002 Manila, Philippines Laoag Int. Airlines Failure of the pilot and co-pilot to check the fuel valves.
08/13/2004 Cincinnati, Ohio Air Tacoma Flightcrew's failure to monitor the fuel gauges and to recognize a fuel imbalance.
08/06/2005 Off Palermo, Italy Tuninter The maintenance crew incorrectly installed a fuel gauge for a ATR-42 on the ATR-72.
Hijacking (resulting in fatalities)
07/16/1948 Pacific Ocean Cathay Pacific AW Crashed after being hijacked and losing control during a struggle in the cockpit.
11/01/1958 Nipe Bay, Cuba Cubana Crashed after being hijacked and running out of fuel.
04/28/1960 Calabozo, Venezuela Linea Aero. Venezolana Detonation of a hand-grenade brought aboard by a Russian immigrant.
05/07/1964 San Ramon, California Pacific AL Francisco Gonzales, a passenger, shot both the pilot and first officer.
01/23/1971 Korean Air Lines Sokcho, South Korea A hijacker detonated grenades he was carrying.
12/06/1971 Tikaka, Sudan Sudan AW Hijacked and ran out of fuel.
05/18/1973 Chita, Russia Aeroflot Detonation of a bomb in the cabin being carried by a hijacker.
09/15/1974 Phan Rang, Vietnam Air Vietnam Detonation of two hand grenades in the passenger compartment by a hijacker.
05/23/1976 Zamboanga, Philippines Philippine AL A hijacker set off grenades in the cabin.
06/27/1976 Entebbe, Uganda Air France Seven passengers were killed during a commando raid by Israeli forces.
12/04/1977 Kampung Ladang, Malaysia Malaysia AL Hijacked with both pilots shot.
06/14/1985 Athens, Greece Trans World AL U.S. Navy diver Robert Stethem was murdered aboard by hijackers.
11/24/1985 Luqa, Malta Egyptair Several hand grenades were thrown into the cabin causing a fire.
09/05/1986 Karachi, Pakistan Pan American AW Hijackers opened fire on the passengers and crew and threw grenades among them.
12/25/1986 Ay, Saudi Arabia Iraqi AW Two hand grenades exploded in the cockpit causing the plane to lose control & crash.
07/24/1987 Geneva, Switzerland Air Afrique A hijacker killed one passenger before the plane was stormed by troops.
12/07/1987 San Luis Obispo, California Pacific Southwest AL David Burk, a fired employee, shot the pilot and first officer.
04/05/1988 Combi, Cyprus Kuwait AW Two hostages killed on the ground by hijackers.
10/02/1990 Guangzhou, China Xiamen/China SW AL After a struggle in the cockpit with a hijacker the pilot hit three parked planes.
08/28/1993 Khorag, Tajikistan Tadzhikistan Nat. AL The crew was coerced into taking off with an overloaded plane by armed hijackers.
12/26/1994 Algiers, Algeria Air France Three passengers and four hijackers were killed when the plane was stormed.
11/23/1996 Moroni, Comoros Islands Ethiopian AL The plane was hijacked and ran out of fuel crashing in the ocean.
07/23/1999 Tokyo, Japan All Nippon AW The plane crashed after the pilot was stabbed by a mentally ill passenger.
12/24/1999 Amritsar, India Indian Airlines One crew member was killed after the plane was hijacked.
05/25/2000 Manila, Philippines Philippine Air Lines A hijacker was killed after jumping out of plane with a homemade parachute.
03/15/2001 Medina, Saudi Arabia Vnukovo Airlines Three people were killed after the hijacked plane was stormed.
09/11/2001 New York, New York American AL Hijacked and flown into the twin towers in New York.
09/11/2001 New York, New York United AL Hijacked and flown into the twin towers in New York.
09/11/2001 Arlington, Virginia American AL Hijacked and flown into the Pentagon.
09/11/2001 Shanksville, Pennsylvania United AL Hijacked and flown into the ground in Pennsylvania.
Lightning
09/03/1929 Mt. Taylor, New Mexico Trans Con. Air Transport Struck by lightning during a thunderstorm.
07/22/1938 Stulpica, Romania LOT Struck by lightning.
08/31/1940 Lovettsville, Virginia Penn Central AL Disabled pilots by a severe lightning discharge in vicinity of plane.
01/17/1951 Civitavecchia, Italy Alitalia Lightning ignited mixture of air and fuel fumes in the fuel tank.
06/26/1959 Varese, Italy Trans World AL Ignition of gasoline vapors emanating from the fuel tank vent pipes by static discharge.
07/19/1961 Azul, Brazil Aerolineas Argentinas Stuck by lightning and extreme turbulence.
12/19/1962 Warsaw, Poland LOT Stalled after being struck by lightning.
08/12/1963 Lyon, France Air Inter Possibility of a flash of lightning dazzling the crew and causing temporary blindness.
12/08/1963 Elkton, Maryland Pan American AW Lightning induced ignition of fuel tank vapors.
04/18/1967 Zarand, Iran Iranian Air Force Crashed after being struck by lightning.
12/24/1971 Puerto Inca, Peru Lineas Aereas Nac. Lightning caused a fire which led to the separation of the right wing.
05/09/1976 Madrid, Spain Iran Air Force Lightning caused an explosion in the No. 1 fuel tank which caused the left wing to fail.
09/05/1980 Montelimar, France Kuwait Air Force Struck by lightning.
02/08/1988 Mulheim, Germany NFD Struck by lightning and suffered a complete electrical failure.
06/22/2000 Shitai, China Wuhan AL Struck by lightning causing the plane to explode and crash.
10/10/2001 Off Valencia, Spain Flightline Electrical power was lost following a lightning strike.
12/27/2002 Anjouan, Comoros Islands Ocean Airlines Struck by lightining causing loss of artificial horizons and gyro compasses.
Pilot Incapacitation
10/06/1955 Centennial, Wyoming United AL Incapacitation of crew by carbon monoxide emanating from a faulty cabin heater.
10/30/1959 Waynesborough, Virginia Piedmont AL Mental breakdown of captain during flight.
12/14/1962 Burbank, California Flying Tiger Line Incapacitation of the captain with a heart attack at a critical point in the approach.
04/22/1966 Ardmore, Oklahoma American Flyers AL Incapacitation of the captain with a heart attack during final stages of approach.
03/13/1967 East London, South Africa South African AW The captain suffered a heart attack and first officer could not regain control of aircraft.
01/14/1970 Mt. Pumacona, Peru Faucett The mental state of the pilot adversely affected his judgment and efficiency.
06/18/1972 Staines, Surrey, England British European AW Incapacitation of the captain due to a possible arterial hemorrhage.
10/13/1972 Krasnaya, Polyana, USSR Aeroflot Sudden incapacitation of the crew for reasons unknown.
02/09/1982 Tokyo, Japan Japan AL The captain, known to have mental problems, put the inboard engines into reverse.
03/31/1995 Balotesti, Romania Trans. Aeriene Rom. The captain was incapacitated shortly after taking off.
09/04/2000 Near Burketown, Australia Central Air Incapacitation of the captain due to depressurized cabin and lack of oxygen.
08/14/2005 Grammatikos, Greece Helios Airways Pressurization failure incapacitated the entire crew.

The following was received from an aerospace reliability leader:

"Just like the domestic power grid problem, to increase the amount of power available to the big cities you need to increase the number of power plants and increase the size and number of the distribution paths. To move more passengers we need to increase the size and number of the airports (in areas like LAX. ORD and JFK, we also need to increase ground access to new or bigger facilities). We also have to abandon the "airway" system of aircraft routing and rely on GPS direct routing to reduce the number of hours aircraft are in the sky, thereby reducing fuel consumption and decrease travel time. Any other plan that relies solely on efficiency improvement will not provide the needed throughput increases that this country needs over the next 20 years. "

Biggest limitation to increasing air traffic might be gate access (cycle time is long). Planes land every 90 seconds (Little's law) but this gets protracted in bad weather. The 90 second spacing is used for aircraft following a 'heavy' or big airplane during landing to reduce wake turbulence effect or risk on smaller following aircraft. It is not needed for smaller aircraft. This spacing does reduce runway availability.
National Airspace (NAS) is abundant except at LAX, OC, NY and a few others Military takes up some of the NAS near airports mentioned above and could be moved away to free up space Could extend arrival times beyond the 6am to midnight range currently applied - maybe move cargo traffic into the 6 hours black out Airline "hub" system keeps planes in the air longer time, taking up NAS The Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) is a GPS control system giving the airplane more control over its navigation and landing and signal integrity. WAAS can navigate a CAT 1 landing without ILS and like ground assets. Greater autonomous control for the aircraft will be needed as the flight lanes and separation decrease. WAAS thus provides some additional landing options, providing more NAS capacity for commercial airline traffic.

The challenge is in successfully managing the extremities:
1. High volume airports such as JFK, LAX, ...
2. Extreme weather conditions
3. Peak periods of travel over holidays: Thanksgiving, Christmas, ...
4. Accident or some calamity
5. Gate and ground capacity limitation for expanding flight density
6. The most challenging control region for aircraft is in the TRACON area. A Terminal Radar Approach Control (or TRACON) is an air traffic control facility usually located within the vicinity of a large airport. Typically, the TRACON controls aircraft within a 30-50 nautical mile (56 to 93 km) radius of the airport between the surface and 10,000 to 15,000 feet (4,600 m). A TRACON is sometimes called Approach Control or Departure Control in radio transmissions. This challenge is indicated by the first figure showing the high rate of problems during initial descent and final descent. This is a small time in the flight profile with disproportionate number of accidents/incidents over time.
7. Increasing air traffic means more planes in closer proximity, is that increasing throughput is not only a reliability issue, but an "ility" issue. For example, someone jumps the line and breaks security - effect: airport terminal closed. Or computer/software reliability high - bandwith slow, therefore performance is in the tank for all automated systems that must interoperate/communicate, and thus the overall traffic management system must be slowed - delays. And safety (weather) and availability (enabled via fault tolerance and others) also play a role somehow.

This is much like being a sailor. Anyone can sail a boat 98% of the time. The true sailor, or challenge comes meeting the 2% extreme. We need to focus on and manage these conditions. We need to manage the above challenges to ensure a reliable, trustworthy airspace.

 

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